There wasn’t a lot happening at the track this morning, all the horses that made a public appearance cantered on the AWT to stretch their muscles. The only exception was Big Arthur, who seemed to get hold of his rider and galloped for a couple of furlongs, without hitting top speed.

Lets have a stab at the big races and see if it’s possible to jag a winner.

Vase

Not going to be at all brave here and go beyond the obvious. Defending campion Highland Reel brings some great form into the race with a devastating last start win in the Breeders Cup Turf. He was given a gem of a ride at Santa Anita by Seamie Heffernan and reverts to Ryan Moore this time, so loses nothing there.

The Vase is usually not run at a strong tempo and I can’t see it being any different this year, so Highland Reel will either lead or be right there with Big Orange. Being able to control the race, he has too much class for the others.

Nuovo Record was a fast finishing second too A Shin Hikari in the Cup last year. She comes off a last start win at Santa Anita last start, agains fillies and mares and has looked well in the mornings and ready to fire. The race may not be run to suit, but I expect a good showing here.

 

Satono Crown has failed to flatter in his last three starts but worked well with stable mate Maurice on Thursday morning. Has to be taken on trust in this, but has looked well since arriving.

Sprint

A race in two I think. Best of the locals currently is Lucky Bubbles. He was a good second to Chautauqua in the Chairmans Sprint in May. He’s risen steadily through the grades over the last eighteen months and is ready to win his maiden Group 1. He’s adaptable tactically so from his gate Prebble can put him where he’s comfortable. The speed here should be good, unlike last year where they let Peniaphobia away with murder.

I’ve been keen on Big Arthur in this for a while and I’m sure he’ll run a big race. He looks to have settled into Hong Kong well and has galloped strongly on during the week. This morning he worked a lap and a half around the Sha Tin all-weather track, breezing in 30.0s (16.4, 13.6) for 400m. He did appear to take his work rider by surprise doing this. I am now leaning the way of Lucky Bubbles after the barrier draw, with Big Arthur to come out of gate 13. Trainer Kenichi Fujioka said: “We are leaving the race strategy up to Ryan Moore.” He is in good hands there. The quinella with these two looks a good bet.

I’m going to throw in Aerovelocity as a place hope. He’s drawn ideally in gate two and is at full fitness now, which he’s not had the luxury of for a while now. I think he can run a bold race and give the younger horses something to chase in the straight.

Mile

This is a tough one. The wild card here is Able Friend. At his best he’d account for this lot easily. On race day last year we awoke to news that he was under a injury cloud with a hoof problem. He took his place in the race, but was beaten into third by Maurice. Since then he has only made one race day appearance, when he ran creditably in the Jockey Club Sprint three weeks ago. In between race day appearances he has been recuperating from a tendon problem in Australia and upon his return to Sha Tin had an encounter with a ‘manure truck’, in which he came off second best. John Moore really would like to have got one more run into him and if he had, I feel he’d be going into this very confident.

Since his run in the Jockey Club Sprint, Able Friend has trialled and did look very good in that. His work this week with Class 1 galloper Mr Bogart was impressive. If you’re backing him though, it is a bit of a speculative bet, even his trainer has consistently said he’s a run short. On top of all that he’s drawn 14!

Helene Paragon was dreadfully unlucky in the Jockey Club Mile last time and comes into the race well. He’ll probably need some luck in running as he is a get back type, but expect a good run from him.

Beauty Only is a last start winner of the Jockey Club Mile and on form is the strongest of the local hopes. His get back style means he needs a little luck, but he does have a good sprint and can make ground quickly. He’s drawn wide, but because he get’s back that does not pose a serious problem. He loves a firm track and will be getting that here, although it won’t be flint hard. He was mid-field in the Cup last year and forth in the Champions Mile in May, so there is a slight query on him at the very top level. For a last start winner, he’ll go around at a decent price I’d suggest.

Of the internationals, Satono Aladdin has impressed in the mornings. He failed in the Cup here last year, but reverts to the shorter trip this time. His form since has been solid, winning twice at Group 2 level, both times at 1400m. He has run well in both the Yasuda Kinen and Mile Championship, finishing just outside the placings both times.

Cup

A dangerous thing to say, but I have this as a race in two. A lot depends on which A Shin Hikari turns up. If His Madness has a melt down in the parade paddock, as he did in the Tenno Sho last time we can put a line through him, but if the other one turns up then he will be awfully hard to beat here. So the paddock parade will be crucial to betting in this race.

He has looked well in the mornings this week, behaving well and he did gallop strongly on Thursday morning. Has the services of the legend Yutaka Take and he is the one that can beat Maurice, should he bring his ‘A game’.

Even if A Shin Hikari is on his best behaviour, Maurice is a big danger. He was a dominant winner of the Tenno Sho last start under Ryan Moore. He’s proven at Sha Tin, although both wins have been at the Mile. He did look every bit a 2000m horse when he won the Champions Mile back in May. No doubt he’s the one to beat here, but will have his hands full if the right A Shin Hikari turns up.