I keep saying it, but another quiet morning at Sha Tin today, but with only the three international horses it’s not going to be any other way. In saying that it was the first day we have seen all three emerge from the quarantine stable, so that was good. It will be more of the same next week, with only two here for the Champions Mile. I’ll also take a look at the race today and see if I can find a winner.

Neorealism

He went a couple of laps of the dirt track, the first one at a very leisurely pace and lifted that slightly the second time around. All three of these horses look well, but Neorealism is the pick of them.

Trainer Noriyuki Hori said: “Neorealism cantered on the all-weather track this morning. I gave him an easy canter to check his condition. He is in top form and is relaxed, not over-excited.”

The United States

He cantered two laps of the course proper, looking very relaxed in doing it. He does seem a very quiet and relaxed entire, nothing has phased him.

Nick Williams, part-owner, said: “He’s never let us down; he’s been a good horse to us. We’ve been happy with his preparation.”

Dicton

He sauntered around the dirt track, enjoying the morning sun that beamed over the New Territories. The horse looks well, has dealt with his insecurities over the week and all points to him running to the best of his abilities.

The Audemars Piquet QEII Cup

The talk all week has been about the lack of pace in this race, and it does lack a genuine leader. Ironically that scenario can often produce a mad dash early as riders look to secure their preferred position in running, and the location of the 2000m start position does lend itself to that outcome. But if this eventuates, expect to see the hand brake applied as they turn into the back straight.

Neorealism is the obvious leader, with possibly Blazing Speed outside of him. The next pair could be Werther and The United States. It would not surprise to see Pakistan Star use his good gate and be handier than he usually is, perhaps in the third pair. Realistically if he is to challenge at the finish, he will need to be closer to the lead than he has been and the small field affords him that opportunity. If the race pans out as expected they will canter down the back and as they start to turn.

If it is a sit sprint it plays into the hands of Werther, as long as he doesn’t let Neorealism get a jump on him as they quicken. The same could apply to Pakistan Star, if he does not have too much ground to make up he could finish over the top of them all. Blazing Speed can use his position handy in the run to give some cheek, but for mine is not likely to be winning this. I definitely do not expect to see anyone winning this by a wide margin, as Werther did last year, in fact a blanket finish would not surprise.

For what it’s worth, my stabs are – Pakistan Star, Werther and Neorealism.