HKIR Race Day Stabs

On race day eve, I’ll take a stab at finding the winner. A couple of these races are quite challenging, so finding the winner is no easy task. If you’re having a bet tomorrow – all the best of racing luck.

Vase

This is a good edition of the Vase, it brings in many form lines, and is a tough race to pick the winner. European-trained runners have won twenty of the twenty four editions of the Hong Kong Vase, with Japan supplying two. Locally trained winners are scarce, with Dominant in 2013 being the last to salute. This year Hong Kong’s best chances are Pakistan Star, who is possibly in the wrong race and Eagle Way. Both ran in the Jockey Club Cup.

Pakistan Star was a stunning winner of the QEII Cup in April and it is a surprise to see him running in this. His effort on speed in the Jockey Club Cup was poor and I’d expect he’ll be ridden more quietly here.

Eagle Way received all the favours in the Jockey Club Cup. He’s a Queensland Derby winner, who hasn’t had a lot of luck since being in Hong Kong, but looks to have found his form at the right time. Whether that is good enough is questionable.

The Europeans look strong as usual. Waldgeist ran well in the Arc, and went on to the Breeders Cup from there. He’s been busy and perhaps that showed in the Breeders Cup, where he was a touch soft. Salouen has had a good season, although struggles to win. Mirage Dancer is lightly raced and has been very good this season, the son of Frankel has looked good in his work this week and can race handy or even lead if necessary.

Red Verdon and Prince Of Arron have both been to Australia for the spring, with contrasting fortunes. Red Verdon was only fair in the Caulfield Cup, in a race that was not run to suit. He had hoof problems subsequent to that and missed the Melbourne Cup. Prince Of Arron had three vey good runs in Australia, winning the Lexus Stakes and placing in the Melbourne Cup.

The Irish Derby quinella horses, Latrobe and Rostropovich, have also been to Melbourne. Both have had plenty of travel, but look well. Neither has done a lot this week, although Latrobe has completed many laps of the dirt track.

The Japanese are represented by Lys Gracieux and Crocosmia, the latter galloped on Tuesday morning and has remained in the quarantine barn for the rest of the week which, has to be a concern. They were the quinella horses in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup – f&m four weeks ago (which Snow Fairy cam out of in 2010 to win the Cup). Prior to that they ran in the G2 Fuchu Himba S. – f&m, where they finished behind Deirdre (Lys Garcieux 2nd and Crocosmia 5th).

Crocosmia is a natural leader and should ensure there is speed. Mirage Dancer is likely to take the sit behind, with Rostropovich also handy, with Salouen, Prince Of Arran and Latrobe also in the front half. Pakistan Star should be nice and relaxed mid pack. The pace should give everyone a chance to show their best.

For what it’s worth, my numbers are: 5/10/2/1

Sprint

This race looks a battle amongst the locals, with the visitors facing a very tall task if they’re to prevail. Fine Needle brings the best form of the visitors, coming off back-to-back victories at home, the last in the Sprinters Stakes at G1 level. Sir Dancealot has a pair of G2 wins this season, but both of those were at 1400m. Lim’s Cruiser is the best sprinter in Singapore, but that is a level below what he will encounter here.

The key race is likely to be the Jockey Club Sprint run three weeks ago.

Hot King Prawn was drawn eight of nine, and was able to get across and lead without trouble. He’s drawn wider in this, however the scenario is likely to pan out much the same. The adaptable Mr Stunning is likely to be prominent again as he also has a wide draw to contend with. Ivictory will also be prominent along with D B Pin and Little Giant should find a nice spot. Fine Needle will tail the field most likely.

The result could well be determined by how much pressure is applied to Hot King Prawn – if he gets it easy again, there will most likely be a repeat of three weeks ago.

D B Pin returned to racing after an injury lay off in the Jockey Club Sprint and clearly needed the run. If he bought his best form here he is a live chance, in fact if I was confident that he would he’d likely be my tip. However I have a feeling he’ll be needing the run here, and I’ll be looking for him to be prominent later in the season.

Mr Stunning was charging home in the Jockey Club Sprint, but ran out of ground. He meets Hot King Prawn at level weights here, after giving him five pounds last time. Both horses are likely to improve again off that run, although Mr Stunning has had one less run this season. It’s a toss of the coin between them, but I’m leaning the way of Mr Stunning this time. In fact I can see third place getter from the Jockey Club Sprint, Beat The Clock doing the same here, with Fine Needle finishing on quickly.

Numbers: 2/5/4/6

Mile

After winning the Mile last year when he was priced at $8.4, Beauty Generation has risen several levels and will be odds on to repeat here. He got an easy time of it in the lead last year, but has proven since that he can win when pressured and even be eased back if the pace is too strong, as evidenced in the Jockey Club Mile.

The task here is to find those that will fill the placings. Mozu Ascot comes here as a Yasuda Kinen winner three starts ago. His last run in the Mile Championship at Kyoto was without luck and perhaps not Lemaire’s finest ride. However I get the feeling he was entitled to do better. He has looked well in his work this week, but has not really been asked to do a lot.

Persian Knight also comes out of the Mile Championship, where he ran a very good second to Stelvio. If this was decided on looks Persian Knight would be winning, he is a stunning looking horse. However that will not see him beating Beauty Generation. Seeing Mozu Ascot improve would be no surprise. If these horses have not bottomed out after that race, they can figure in the finish.

I’m going to put a line through the European challenge. Beat The Bank is far from the top Miler in Britain, and they are a plain lot currently. Inns Of Court is perhaps at his best at 1400m, a trip at which he finished second to One Master two starts back. One Master subsequently went to the Breeders cup, where she ran fifth.

Vivlos is likely to be making her final racetrack appearance here. She won the Dubai Turf in 2017 and was second this year. She’s perhaps at her best beyond a Mile and has raced twice since Dubai and has not filled the frame, but has been respectable. I’d love to see her win, but that is unlikely.

The next best of the local Milers is Southern Legend, who put in a good effort in the lead up race. Old marvel Beauty Only needs two things – a good pace and a firm track to figure.

Numbers: 1/2/9/4

Cup

There has been money thrown at the Cup in an effort to bolster it, but it has failed to draw a full field here which is disappointing. There are no stand out 2000m horses on show. From a local perspective the Jockey Club Cup is the key lead up race, however the winner from that Eagle Way goes the the Vase.

Brothers Time Warp and Glorious Forever were on a mission to destroy each other in that, and succeeded admirably, setting it up for a closer. Time Warp needs a scenario like last year where he is not bothered on the lead, to have any chance of repeating that win. Glorious Forever’s connections have indicated that they will take a sit this time round.

Gold Mount has not won since the Happy Valley Vase in March, but has been very consistent and is a place chance again here.

The visitors are likely to figure. Deirdre comes off two wins in filly and mare grade in Japan and has been set for this. She travelled to Dubai earlier this year and performed creditably, finishing in a dead heat for third.

Staphanos stands in the frequent visitor queue at the airport, this being his fifth trip to Hong Kong where he has a third placing (to Maurice in 2016) and forth (last year to Time Warp) in the Cup. He looks as well as ever, but a win here would surprise.

Sungrazer is perhaps the best credentialed of the Japanese visitors. He was a G2 winner of the Sapporo Kinen two starts back and second to Rey de Oro in the Tenno Sho Autumn last time out. That form reads well for this. The question mark is, will he run to his peak off a tough effort last time?