No track work today, but I will see if I can have a stab at finding the winner of the four G1 races tomorrow.
This year’s Hong Kong Vase lacks a clear or obvious leader, so it’s hard to imagine the pace being strong. The Sha Tin 2400m circuit is quite fast by European standards and requires a sharp stayer to get the best results. Horses getting too far back in the field have a poor record.
Last years winner, Exultant, goes into this a clear favourite, after a consistent year and a strong last start win in the Jockey Club Cup. Of the home brigade, he is the only winning chance.
The visitors are an interesting group, with no standout contender. This years Derby winner Anthony Van Dyck comes with the highest profile, but has not returned to the winners circle his his Derby triumph.
He was a sound a sound third in the G1 Irish Champion Stakes and then a somewhat unlucky third in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf. The wide draw could be an issue for him. Stable mate Mount Everest was sixth in the Breeders Cup turf also.
Prince Of Arran brings some good from from Melbourne this year (as he did last year when finishing mid-pack). He drew wide last year, but the barrier gods have been kinder this year with a mid-gate in eight. From there he could settle closer to the speed as he did in the Geelong Cup, which he won.
The Japanese team of Glory Vase, Deirdre and Lucky Lilac all have claims, with Deirdre being the best performed of the three. She won the G1 Nassau Stakes at Goodwood and was seriously unlucky in the Irish Champion Stakes when finishing forth. Lucky Lilac produced a career peak win last start in G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (2200m) at Kyoto when she closed late down the rail. She has had a slight injury query during the week, and faces a vet check on Saturday morning, which she has been passed fit to run.
Deirdre is unplaced in three trips beyond 2200m, so does have to be a query at the trip. Lucky Lilac looks suited to 2400 metres.
My stabs are: Exultant, Anthony Van Dyck, Lucky Lilac and Prince of Arran.